Scenarios evaluated

7 are illustrated here. Each scenario corresponds to a different amount of contact rate, and can be understood in terms of:

Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 23.0 0.00000 0.96
1 35.8 55.65217 1.49
2 48.7 111.73913 2.03
3 61.5 167.39130 2.56
4 74.3 223.04348 3.09
5 87.2 279.13043 3.63
6 100.0 334.78261 4.16

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 0.96
  • % of original R0: 23
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.49
  • % of original R0: 35.8
  • % Increase from current: 55.6521739

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.03
  • % of original R0: 48.7
  • % Increase from current: 111.7391304

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.56
  • % of original R0: 61.5
  • % Increase from current: 167.3913043

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.09
  • % of original R0: 74.3
  • % Increase from current: 223.0434783

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.63
  • % of original R0: 87.2
  • % Increase from current: 279.1304348

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 4.16
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 334.7826087